Preparing for "the Great Transformation"
"Demographics, automation and inequality have the potential to dramatically reshape our world in the 2020s and beyond. Our analysis shows that the collision of these forces could trigger economic disruption far greater than we have experienced over the past 60 years. The coming decade will test leadership teams profoundly. Resilient organizations that can absorb shocks and change course quickly will have the best chance of thriving in the turbulent 2020s and beyond." -- Karen Harris, Austin Kimson, Andrew Schwedel (Bain & Company Micro Trends)
Part of our Mission AI event series, this workshop will offer an overview and analysis of new research published by Bain & Company, Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality -- a unique and unsettling forecast of the future labor market and economy. Additionally, this workshop will offer a brief overview of comparable research published over the past year and explore how we can use this information to make wise, informed decisions that prepare us for the future. We are already beginning to see and feel the impact of automation across industries and the world. When General Motors recently announced that they are laying off 14,000 workers and closing 5 plants within a year, it came as a shock to workers, the unions and, well, everyone. GM made this decision based on projections of how the auto industry will be impacted by the rise of electric cars and autonomous vehicles in the next 10-20 years. It's being reported that Ford Motors will also announce layoffs that could dwarf GMs numbers. As industries restructure to prepare for mass adoption of automation, changes to the labor market and economy will be deep, they will happen quickly, and the effects may be felt for a long time. This workshop is for professionals who who want to understand the forces at play catapulting us to a new and entirely unfamiliar world run by automated technologies, and who want to gain a more nuanced understanding of how society and businesses will be impacted by automation. The research will be presented by Stephanie Bosco-Ruggiero (a PhD student at Fordham University Graduate School of Social Service).Topics We Will Cover
Published in February 2018 by Bain's Micro Trends team, this report explains the forces that will ultimately collide and drastically reorder the global workforce and economy. The report calls the next 10-20 years of extreme volatility "the Great Transformation.""By 2030—little more than a decade from now—the global economy will likely be in the midst of a major transformation. Companies and investors grapple with changing conditions constantly, but our research points to an unusual level of volatility in the decades ahead... Humanoid service robots, machine learning algorithms and autonomous logistics will replace millions of service workers in the coming decade. Experts are rushing to forecast the likely impact on jobs. But most projections overlook two powerful forces that will combine with automation to reshape the global economy by 2030: rapidly aging populations and rising inequality."
We will cover the following topics from this report:⇒ The impact of aging populations and the end of plentiful labor. The baby boomer generation powered a long but temporary surge in labor force growth. Now this group is moving into retirement, and labor force growth is slowing. That, in turn, imperils growth.
⇒ How automation may solve one problem by increasing productivity and powering growth but creates another by potentially eliminating millions of jobs and suppressing wages for many workers.
⇒ How rising inequality could threaten growth. Demographic shifts combined with the next phase of automation will increase income inequality from already high levels. Middle- and low-income families are likely to be hit hardest, putting downward pressure on consumer spending and growth.
⇒ How developments are likely to unfold in the turbulent 2020s. Investment in new automation technologies should fuel a period of robust growth. When it tapers off—sometime around the end of the decade, based on our estimates—growth is likely to become severely demand constrained.
⇒ The outlook if governments intervene more actively in the marketplace to address economic imbalances. Their options include tax, labor market and regulatory interventions. The manner and likelihood of such interventions will vary greatly from country to country.
⇒ The practical business implications of these trends for leadership teams, including the need to adjust to a macro environment that veers between extremes.
We'll also review media coverage of the impact of automation happening today and explore how media coverage impacts public/consumer perception and government policy (for better or worse). Attendees will participate in an interactive workshop exercise and survey to explore alternative futures according to this report.Workshop Takaways
According to the authors, the goal of this report is to help business leaders and entrepreneurs "put these changes in context and consider the effects they will have on their companies, their industries and the global economy" (before it's too late). Attendees will gain a substantive understanding of this research and be able to "connect the dots" with regards to the implications of the research and relevant events happening today. The end goal is to become comfortable with speaking about this research and to think critically about what it implies. And finally, attendees will be challenged to develop an outline of a strategy for how they (or their company) should begin to prepare for the Great Transformation. There are no prerequisites or technical skills required. However, it is suggested that all participants read the research report before the workshop.
Stephanie Bosco-Ruggiero

Charlie Oliver

⇒ The impact of aging populations and the end of plentiful labor. The baby boomer generation powered a long but temporary surge in labor force growth. Now this group is moving into retirement, and labor force growth is slowing. That, in turn, imperils growth.
⇒ How automation may solve one problem by increasing productivity and powering growth but creates another by potentially eliminating millions of jobs and suppressing wages for many workers.
⇒ How rising inequality could threaten growth. Demographic shifts combined with the next phase of automation will increase income inequality from already high levels. Middle- and low-income families are likely to be hit hardest, putting downward pressure on consumer spending and growth.
⇒ How developments are likely to unfold in the turbulent 2020s. Investment in new automation technologies should fuel a period of robust growth. When it tapers off—sometime around the end of the decade, based on our estimates—growth is likely to become severely demand constrained.
⇒ The outlook if governments intervene more actively in the marketplace to address economic imbalances. Their options include tax, labor market and regulatory interventions. The manner and likelihood of such interventions will vary greatly from country to country.
⇒ The practical business implications of these trends for leadership teams, including the need to adjust to a macro environment that veers between extremes.
We'll also review media coverage of the impact of automation happening today and explore how media coverage impacts public/consumer perception and government policy. There will be an in-class exercise and study to explore alternative futures according to this report. Please bring current, valid state or government-issued ID to show building security at the venue. If you have any questions or need additional information, email us at theteam@tech2025.com.